DVD Industry Insider Report - Optical Storage
Everyone is now delivering 16x DVD burners at unbelievably low prices. Rushing to keep pace, the leading media manufacturers deliver the high-speed +/-R media as quickly as the formats and specifications are approved.
But, according to most senior engineering types we've finally reached the upper performance limit for single-sided 4.7GB media. There are discussions of jumping the speed to 18x/20x but among most content professionals there is always a concern about the integrity of the written data at excessively high speeds. They usually write content at a much slower speed so they maintain the highest possible quality.
While this exploration is going on, the media industry leaders were ramping up Double layer media production, Verbatim lead the pack on delivering the 16x discs. The initial 2x -R and 2.4x +R media has already been certified for 4 and 5x speeds. You have to wonder if the media coatings and processes were so robust at the outset if the media can be expanded to 8x without having to go back to the lab.
Now all of the major disc producers -Verbatim, MKM and others - are delivering 16x media and a few other firms have begun their DL production ramps even though the media even though only product from the two firms mentioned has been certified by the authorization group. The big difference is that the big volume burner producers are shipping 4x and 5x DL units and have already certified Verbatim's DL discs for these write speeds. There is some speculation that the discs were so over designed that it may be possible to write the 8.5GB discs at 8x. That would mean significant savings if they don't have to come up with new dyes, chemistries and processes.
The engineers and chemists are still working to see if they can reliably deliver 16x DL media but we believe people should be focusing more on the quality of the data laid down, not the speed.
One concept that will probably never emerge from the research groups is quad layer discs (15GB). The big challenges would be backward read comparability (probably won't happen) or simply encourage consumers to move on to new players. Of course they could simply put the project on the shelf and focus on the burners and media we'll begin seriously buying in 2006.
The major thing the industry analysts forget --as do the hardware/media manufacturers -- is that people don't immediately jump on every "new generation" or next greatest thing. So those Blu or HD burners may take years to become accepted except with the early adopters (you know those people who have one of every new/obsolete tech toy). Two hours of personal video from a DVD is a lot. 30 minutes of a kid's ballet recital on SVCD is excruciating. 24 hours of music on a single disc is "like way cool!"
We were recently asked - yes again - which had better compatibility + or -R. Honestly, that worry should be behind you. It is only a rounding error of the units that aren't compatible with both media. If there is an edge it is perhaps - and we emphasize perhaps - slightly better compatibility with +R. That's true of PC and TV top players.
DVD burner prices are in the basement. DVR prices - even with some mind-boggling features are right next door. Disc prices - even for quality, name brand media that is all people should buy for irreplaceable personal digital photos and family video memories - has come down dramatically in the past few months.
Even with the rising "no-name" production coming out of China the demand for the two classes of CD and DVD media continues to grow (see disc sales growth chart). The classes? Cheap stuff starting as low as $.10 - $.15 for CDR and not much more for the stuff they call DVDR. Brand media that have the reputation and distribution channels to maintain their lead and modest margins.
The quality media and bottom feeders are making it extremely difficult for those in the middle to survive. Expect to see factories close in both Taiwan and China this coming year when people buy in two categories. First there will be the ultra high speed single layer media and high speed DL (+/-) that will be economical and in volume from the brand name suppliers. Then there will be the slow speed, cheap media that only works in older burners/recorders. The in-between questionable stuff will sell for awhile but without the infrastructure, technology expertise and relationships the middle will painfully disappear even as sales volumes continue to rise.
Best of Both Worlds?
Speaking of discs, If you like CD music and you like DVD-audios, you're going to love the new sandwich that the music industry in LaLa Land has put together for you. Imagine a disc with one side a conventional music CD and the other a DVD-audio. (see display and initial discs)
If you want the disc in your car CD player that's great. But if you want to play the DVD in your home system you'll have pop your trunk and unload your cartridge. We're not certain if we'll keep ours with our CDs or DVDs…tough choice.
Of course the idea of doing something logical like putting two discs in a single jewel case never crossed their minds. Fortunately, the party line from the "sponsors" is that consumer response in the test markets has been "overwhelmingly positive."
If you're not into the idea of buying a second copy for the home or car you can always rip a copy of one or both to CD-R or DVD+/-R media. We don't like that idea but your only option seems to buy another music industry sandwich which doesn't sound appetizing.
Download vs CD Music
If you believe Apple, Sony and Sir Richard Branson, the world is abandoning CD music for single song downloads. Today there are more than 20 online services that allow you to legally or illegally download music to your portable music device. The sound - slightly less quality than CD - seems to be good enough for a lot of people.
While RIAA says that the downloads are killing the music industry the truth is that less than eight percent of the music people enjoy is downloaded. The rest of the digital music is purchased at retail. Jupiter research forecasts that CD sales will continue to dwarf downloads thru the remainder of the decade. They point out that CD player and system sales will continue to dwarf the sale of MP3 and other digital music players.
In that same vane NetFlix and TiVo have joined forces to deliver video-on-demand and more than a dozen other VOD services - including those offering video to cellphones - have emerged. Watching video on a cellphone screen is painful at best. 7-inch DVD player screens are "tolerable."
Once you've seen HD are you going to tolerate the grainy quality of these small screens? Worse yet VOD demands big pipes and so far those only exist in Japan, Korea and a few areas of Europe.
With people now migrating to home entertainment, home theater systems as well as HighDef and rich immersion/surround sound; quality may return to our audio/video content.